My Weather
Forecasts for my station's location from four sources, plus our own estimate, saved every hour, alongside what the station actually recorded. Left of the dashed "now" line, each forecast line shows what the source predicted in advance for that hour; right of it, its forecast for the hours ahead. Darker shading marks night, lighter shading the twilight between dawn and sunrise and between sunset and dusk.
"6 h ahead" uses the newest forecast made at least 6 hours before each hour, the forecast you'd have had that far in advance. The average never includes our estimate, which is built from HRRR. Click a legend entry to show or hide a line; besides the average, our estimate and HRRR, the individual forecasts start hidden.
Temperature
How the forecasts did
| Forecast | Hours | Temp bias | Temp miss | Dew pt bias | Dew pt miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | 13 | -0.2° | 2.0° | – | – |
| ECMWF | 25 | +1.5° | 2.3° | -0.5° | 2.3° |
| HRRR | 25 | +1.1° | 2.3° | -3.0° | 3.1° |
| Average | 25 | +0.8° | 2.4° | -1.0° | 1.5° |
| NBM | 25 | +0.3° | 2.8° | -0.2° | 1.8° |
| NWS | 25 | +0.4° | 2.8° | -0.2° | 1.4° |
Past hours in the range, against the station's reading at the top of each hour, sorted by temperature miss. Bias is the average of forecast minus actual (positive means the forecast ran high); miss is the average size of the error either way. The average is an equal-weight mean of the four fetched sources and doesn't include our estimate. Our estimate is newer than the others, so it may cover fewer hours.
Forecasts made in advance
How one forecast changed as each hour got closer: its forecast made about a day before (the models only), 12 hours before, 6 hours before and about an hour before, against what the station recorded. "Average" is the mean of the fetched forecasts and doesn't include our estimate, which has its own button.
Gap between temperature and dew point
How far the air is from saturation. When the temperature falls to within 2°F of the dew point (the shaded band at the bottom), dew or fog is likely. Forecast lines use each source's own temperature and dew point. The faint dashed line is the station's temperature, on the right-hand scale; hover over a point to see the temperature and dew point behind each gap.
Clouds
Solid lines are total cloud cover; dashed lines are low cloud (fog and marine layer), which only HRRR and ECMWF forecast, so the average leaves it out. Station humidity near 100% usually means fog.
Forecasts last fetched:
Sources
- NWS: the National Weather Service's forecast for the area.
- HRRR: NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (3 km grid, updated hourly).
- NBM: NOAA's National Blend of Models, a blend of many models (2.5 km).
- ECMWF: the European Centre's global model (about 25 km).
- Our estimate: HRRR's latest temperature forecast, corrected using how HRRR has done against my station over the last two weeks: its typical bias at each lead time, and how much of its current error tends to carry into the hours ahead. The corrections start small and get more weight as data builds up. Made every hour and saved as made, so it's scored like the others.
Forecast data from the National Weather Service and Open-Meteo.com (HRRR, NBM and ECMWF).