My Weather
Current temperature is 61°, dropping to a low of 49° by 7 am. No rain expected.
Tomorrow's temperature will be 49° after sunrise, at 6:33 am, rising to a high of 69° around 2 pm, then 64° by sunset, at 5:09 pm. Winds out of the southwest at 2–5 mph, strongest around 2 pm, with gusts up to 10 mph. No rain expected.
Forecasts for my station's location from four sources, plus our own estimate, saved every hour, alongside what the station actually recorded. Left of the dashed "now" line, each forecast line shows what the source predicted in advance for that hour; right of it, its forecast for the hours ahead. Darker shading marks night, lighter shading the twilight between dawn and sunrise and between sunset and dusk.
"Latest" uses the newest forecast made before each hour. The average never includes our estimate, which is built from NWS, NBM and HRRR. Click a legend entry to show or hide a line. The temperature chart starts with just my station and our estimate; the other charts start with the station and the average.
To look closer, tap a day in the "Show" row, which stays at the top of the screen as you scroll, or pinch (Ctrl-scroll on a computer) on a chart to zoom and drag sideways to move along. Every chart follows.
Temperature
How the forecasts did
| Forecast | Hours | Temp bias | Temp miss | Dew pt bias | Dew pt miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | 25 | +0.3° | 0.9° | – | – |
| Average | 25 | -0.3° | 1.0° | -2.5° | 2.5° |
| HRRR | 25 | -0.1° | 1.2° | -4.1° | 4.1° |
| NBM | 25 | -0.4° | 1.3° | -2.1° | 2.2° |
| NWS | 25 | -0.3° | 1.4° | -1.6° | 1.9° |
| ECMWF | 25 | -0.4° | 1.6° | -2.3° | 2.7° |
Past hours in the range, against the station's reading at the top of each hour, sorted by temperature miss. Bias is the average of forecast minus actual (positive means the forecast ran high); miss is the average size of the error either way. The average is an equal-weight mean of the four fetched sources and doesn't include our estimate. Our estimate is newer than the others, so it may cover fewer hours.
Forecasts made in advance
How one forecast changed as each hour got closer: its forecast made about a day before (the models only), 12 hours before, 6 hours before and about an hour before, against what the station recorded. "Average" is the mean of the fetched forecasts and doesn't include our estimate, which has its own button.
Gap between temperature and dew point
How far the air is from saturation. When the temperature falls to within 2°F of the dew point (the shaded band at the bottom), dew or fog is likely. Forecast lines use each source's own temperature and dew point. The faint dashed line is the station's temperature, on the right-hand scale; hover over a point to see the temperature and dew point behind each gap.
Clouds
Solid lines are total cloud cover; dashed lines are low cloud (fog and marine layer), which only HRRR and ECMWF forecast, so the average leaves it out. Station humidity near 100% usually means fog.
Rain
Bars are the rain my station recorded in each hour; solid lines are each forecast's amount for the hour, dashed lines its chance of rain (right-hand scale). Hovering over an hour shows the hour it starts at. NWS gives amounts for blocks of about six hours, spread evenly over them here, and HRRR's chance of rain is left out, since Open-Meteo copies it from NBM. Forecast amounts were first saved on Oct 20, 2026.
How the rain forecasts did
| Forecast | Hours | Forecast total | Recorded total | Rainy hours caught | Missed | False alarms | Chance when rainy | Chance when dry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 24 | 0.15 in | 0.34 in | 2 | 0 | 1 | 72% | 15% |
| HRRR | 24 | 0.30 in | 0.34 in | 1 | 1 | 1 | – | – |
| Average | 24 | 0.17 in | 0.34 in | 2 | 0 | 2 | 59% | 11% |
| NBM | 24 | 0.14 in | 0.34 in | 2 | 0 | 3 | 48% | 4% |
| NWS | 24 | 0.09 in | 0.34 in | 0 | 2 | 1 | 58% | 12% |
Past hours in the range with both a forecast amount and a station measurement. An hour with at least 0.01 in counts as rainy. "Missed" is a rainy hour the forecast had as dry; a false alarm is the reverse. The chance columns are the forecast's average chance of rain in the hours that turned out rainy and dry: a good forecast has a high first number and a low second one. Sorted by missed plus false-alarm hours.
Forecasts last fetched:
Sources
- NWS: the National Weather Service's forecast for the area.
- HRRR: NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (3 km grid, updated hourly).
- NBM: NOAA's National Blend of Models, a blend of many models (2.5 km).
- ECMWF: the European Centre's global model (about 25 km).
-
Our estimate: made every hour from the latest forecasts and
the station's recent readings, and saved as made, so it's scored like the others.
Past hours show the estimate as it was at the time, not recomputed with the
current method.
- Since 4 pm on Oct 20, 2026: the average of the latest NWS, NBM and HRRR temperature forecasts, corrected for how that average has done over the last two weeks: its typical bias at each lead time, how much of its current error tends to carry into the hours ahead, and, for daytime hours, how its error varies by hour of the day (it has run warm in the mornings and cool in the afternoons). ECMWF is left out, since it has missed by the most here. The corrections start small and get more weight as data builds up.
- Oct 12 to 4 pm on Oct 20, 2026: HRRR alone, with the same kinds of corrections fitted to HRRR, plus an hour-of-day correction taken from archived HRRR day-ahead forecasts for this time of year since 2024. Scores for ranges that include these days mix the two methods.
Forecast data from the National Weather Service and Open-Meteo.com (HRRR, NBM and ECMWF).